Thursday, September 24, 2015

Who North Carolinians like in the Presidential Race

A new poll  by Public Policy Polling shows that like much of the nation, Donald Trump is leading in North Carolina.

Trump leads his Republican opponents at 24% while Dr. Ben Carson takes second place at 14%. He is followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 13%, Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 10%, Florida Senator Marco Rubio at 9%, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (who has since dropped out) at 6%. No one else registered above 5%.

Trump is winning just about every section of the Republican party possible in the state. He leads with moderates, conservatives, young voters, middle aged voters, and senior citizens.

The poll is good news for Carson. He has risen from an obscure candidate to the second choice of Republicans both in North Carolina as well as nationally.  His poll numbers in the state have gone from 9% to 14% and he is the second choice candidate of 21% of Republican North Carolinians. Cruz has also seen his poll numbers rise in the state since earlier this summer.

With the Democrats Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming frontrunner with 55% of North Carolina Democrats backing the former Secretary of State, New York Senator, and First Lady. Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders gets 19%, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb is at 5%, former Maryland Governor and former Rhode Island Governor and Senator Lincoln Chafee tie at 2%, and Harvard economics professor Lawrence Lessig gets 1%.

Clinton leads in every demographic of Democratic primary voters in the state. She wins both men and women, young and old, and moderates and liberals. She also has increased her support in the African American community.

In hypothetical match ups Clinton falters against some of her potential Republican opponents. She loses  North Carolina to Carson (47% Carson, 40% Clinton) and Marco Rubio (45% Rubio, 41% Clinton) as well as narrow losses to Fiorina, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Cruz, Huckabee and Trump.

The poll was conducted August 12-16 and interviewed 957 North Carolina voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percent.




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