Wednesday, September 9, 2015

The State of the 2016 Race (Why Political Analysts Say Anger is a Key Theme)

As the Iowa caucuses are now just six months away the presidential race has heated up. The Republican field (with a record number of 17 candidates) is currently dominated by political outsiders such as billionaire real estate businessman Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson. The rise of these tea party backed candidates appear to have robbed Jeb Bush, the expected frontrunner, of the title as party leader. It seems that no establishment candidate has the ability to slow their rise. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker was knocked from his throne of Iowa's preferred candidate by the controversial businessman and neurosurgeon. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham is losing in his own home state to Trump despite saying he'll "beat his brains out" in the South Carolina primary. Even former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is getting more air time after her performance in the 5 P.M. Fox News debate as another anti-establishment conservative.

The Democratic race meanwhile is seeing a similar phenomenon. While former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expected an easy path to her party's nomination, she is seeing her poll numbers slip as Independent socialist Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Senator, is running a strong campaign to her left. While originally polling in single digits when he briefly announced his intention to run in front of a few reporters earlier this year, he has seen his notoriety rise as he uses a similar strategy as Trump: Anger.

Anger has become a potent campaign tool over the summer. Donald Trump has rallied the far right with anger over illegal immigration while Bernie Sanders rallied the far left with issues such as economic inequality. With claims that the establishment candidates (Bush and Clinton) will only maintain the status quo, angry voters see the opportunity for change in these outsiders. Supporters of these unorthodox candidates gush over how different they are, how they are willing to challenge the norm. Trump supporters love how Trump is rich enough to not be bought by special interests while Sanders supporters love how he refuses to create a super PAC or accept multimillion dollar checks. Carson has risen in the polls with his angry statements over political correctness and his controversial statements comparing Obamacare to slavery. Fiorina has used anger in her rise as well as she attacks Hillary Clinton every chance she gets. It's anger at the establishment that is fueling their rise.

The race thus far has taken an interesting turn. Anger has become a candidates main weapon. Outlandish statements help, not hurt a campaign. Whether it's about accusing Mexicans of being rapists, calling homosexuality a choice, or comparing the Republican party to terrorist groups, it is a struggle to be the one to make the most noticeable statement. We will see in the coming months if this support will translate into votes as we continue to observe this "election of rage".

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