Friday, October 30, 2015

Republican Debate Breakdown

Republican presidential candidates squared off for a third time last Wednesday for the CNBC hosted debate in Boulder, Colorado at the University of Colorado.

The top ten candidates polling the highest faced off at 8 while the four lowest polling candidates faced off earlier at 6. The debate proved to be both entertaining and intense.

The main debate featured real estate mogul Donald Trump, former neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

The debate was slightly different from the previous CNN debate that had happened nearly a month ago. One less candidate was on stage after Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker had dropped out and there had been a change in the party's frontrunner lineup. Trump had lost his first place status to Carson in both Iowa and nationally. Bush's numbers were also on the decline and Rubio and Cruz were skyrocketing amongst voters in post-debate polls.

The highlights of the night included a swipe at Rubio from Bush as the former Governor attempted to take down the Senator's rising position in the polls. It ultimately backfired when Rubio had a swift comeback and left Bush looking weak. The debate was largely free from attacks however. In fact, the debate moderators were the one who took much of the heat. The moderators were called out by Cruz when he lectured the moderators to focus on questions of substance and policy rather than provoke the candidates to fight each other.

Here is a breakdown of the debate by each candidate:

Ben Carson- The former neurosurgeon had nowhere to go but down as he walked across a debate stage for only the third time. After taking his place as the party's frontrunner and declining to fire back at Trump's attacks he was ready to prove to voters why he deserves to remain as the frontrunner.  Surprisingly he remained quiet for much of the debate. The soft spoken doctor refused to partake in the few bouts of brawling that did emerge and ultimately spoke for just seven minutes according to NPR. He was asked a question late in the debate about his relationship with a diet pill company that openly supports gay marriage and if that speaks to "his character". The question drew loud booing from the audience and Carson was simply able to laugh off the question by replying "They Know". He thanked his fellow candidates on stage at the end of the night for refusing to partake in the supposed moderators attempts to get the candidates to fight each other. His refusal to attack his fellow candidates is perhaps what really speaks to his character.

Donald Trump- Even if you have little or no interest in politics you may still watch the debate simply for "The Trump Factor". Not only did Trump focus on his platform but he barely broke out any personal insults at all. In the previous debates Trump had called Bush "low energy" and claimed he had plenty of insult material with Rand Paul however this time all attacks Trump used were political. He attacked Kasich early on by claiming that the Ohio Governor's work at Lehman Brothers were a reason not to trust him. He also combated a claim by Kasich that he had created economic prosperity in the state by telling Kasich that fracking was likely the cause of the state's economic boom. Trump remained calm and strategic throughout the debate to many viewers surprise. However, at the end he couldn't help but brag that his and Carson's threats to boycott the debate if it wasn't cut from three hours to two were an example of his negotiation skills.

Marco Rubio- The Florida Senator has had a hot streak during the last two debates and has seen his standing in the polls and his campaign donations rise in the wake of them. Once again he had a great night behind that podium. Early on he swatted down an attack from Bush and defended his voting attendance record in the Senate. Earlier that day the Florida Sun Sentinel, a newspaper that had endorsed him when he first ran had called on him to step down due to his constance absences in Washington. It argued that there was no reason for him to receive a tax payer salary if he wasn't doing his job. A friend of his had even been quoted earlier of saying that Rubio "hates" his Senate job. Rubio started the spark of the night's attack on the media. He pointed to examples of missed votes from John Kerry and Barack Obama from when the then-Senators ran yet the media didn't cover it. He got the most applause when he flat out referred to the media as Hillary Clinton's largest Super PAC.

Jeb Bush- Bush by far lost the debate. The former Florida Governor had started out the summer by leading the pack of candidates and having the strongest financial backing. With his debate performance you would have never guessed. He attacked Rubio early in the debate in an attempt to seem fiery and aggressive yet ultimately appeared weak when Rubio had a strong defense. Bush later gave a long winded answer on regulating fantasy football which both confused and annoyed viewers and fans of the sport.

Ted Cruz- Cruz has received a strong haul of campaign cash over the last few weeks as he is now the only Texas candidate in the race. He had managed to lock down many of the Texas millionaires and billionaires that were supporting former Texas Governor Rick Perry's campaign. Yet at the same time he consistently polls between fourth and sixth place in both national and Iowa polls. Cruz needed the debate to go his way. It ultimately did. Cruz delivered a powerful attack on the media when he accused the moderators and the media in general of focusing too much on drama between candidates rather than actual substance.

Rand Paul- The Kentucky Senator had a less memorable night. After weeks of rumors that he may be the next candidate to drop out it would make sense for Paul to come off as powerful and as strong as ever to prove his critics wrong. Instead he gave a few mediocre answers and spoke very infrequently. He briefly called out the moderators for favoring other candidates by asking when it would be his turn to speak.

Chris Christie- Christie was another candidate who needed to prove himself on Wednesday night. Similar to Bush the New Jersey Governor has seen his poll numbers decline over time. Christie has made it clear he wants his campaign to be about the people. As usual whenever he spoke he did it directly into the camera as if he could see anyone who was watching at home. He was able to seize his moment late into the debate. After Bush flubbed on a question about regulating fantasy football Christie  broke in to declare the question as ridiculous when you consider all the other problems the country faces. He later broke out his classic New Jersey bluntness that made him so popular in his home state. When posed a question on climate change he found himself interrupted by moderator John Harwood several times. Christie quickly responded with "John, would you like to respond?" much to the delight of the audience. He finished it off with "Even in New Jersey what you are doing is considered rude," leading to his largest applause line of the night.

Carly Fiorina- The former CEO was another candidate who had something to prove. With no experience in public office and polling in the middle to lower of the group she needed a strong quote to help her fundraise. After the last debate she had been typecast in the media as being a crusader against abortion after most of her speech material consisted of defunding planned parenthood over videos allegedly showing the discussion of the sale of fetal parts. In this debate she focused on almost anything else. She opened with a joke on how pundits say she should smile more and finished by telling the audience that she is Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare. She came off as smart and prepared and did a pretty good job overall.

Mike Huckabee- Huckabee was another candidate who needed a breakout moment after months of polling in the middle of the group and having less than average fundraising numbers. He never really found it. A substantial amount of time had passed before he even got a question directed at him. He mostly stuck to his policy idea of focusing resources on curing life shortening diseases such as diabetes, Alzheimer's and cancer rather than cut Medicare. He was another candidate on stage who refused to engage in attacks. When asked his opinion on Donald Trump the former Arkansas Governor showed off his Trump brand tie and said he had tremendous respect for him.

John Kasich- Kasich had the honor of getting to answer the first question and he wasted little time in putting his foot down. When asked what his greatest weakness was Kasich declined to answer and instead trained his fire on the rise of the non-politicians. He argued that Carson and Trump (without directly naming them) should not be able to be president without having elected office experience. From there he was able to pivot to his record of balancing the budget in Ohio, cutting taxes, and taking responsibility for the budget surplus in the 90's when he was chairman of the House Budget Committee. He dueled with Trump early on when Trump accused Kasich of taking credit for the state's economic boom when fracking likely had more to do with it. Kasich sort of faded into the background after that.

Rubio and Cruz were the likely winners of the debate. Their attack on the media and the urging of their fellow GOP candidates to refrain from personal attacks made them appear honest and focused. Their youth and charisma also made them appealing. Christie also had his moments and came off as strong and assertive.

The next debate is November 10 and will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. It will be hosted by the Fox Business Network and the Wall Street Journal. The debate will be slightly different in terms of criteria to be on the stage. The criteria for the previous debate was for a candidate to achieve at least 1% in national polling this one will require 2.5%. This potentially could push Paul, Christie and Huckabee into the undercard debate.

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