Demographers this week have determined that due to North Carolina's growing population and demographic shift, the state is likely to get a new congressional district in the near future.
North Carolina, the ninth most populous state and home to the expanding cities of Raleigh and Charlotte, has become a prime area to move to. Demographers say that eight districts have seen their population swell by 40% since 2010.
On the state level there will be some changes in districting as well. The demographic studies also show that a large amount of rural North Carolinians are leaving their homes for more urban districts. This means that state congressional districts in rural areas will get larger and ones in urban districts will get smaller.
According to N.C. State political science professor Mark Nance this means there will be a 3 percent shift in the state legislature for the Democrats, who tend to dominate urban districts. "This is not going to flip many districts at all," he said in an interview with the News & Observer. "But certainly if that trend continues up through 2030 then the impact will be quite substantial."
According to Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer however, none of this matters due to the lack of "swing districts" in the state. According to him not a single one of the 13 federal districts were competitive and only 18 out of 120 House seats and 7 out of 50 Senate seats in the last election he claimed in the News & Observer.
It is unclear how the map would change with a 14th district but what is clear is that the Republican dominated state legislature would likely want to ensure that it be based in an area where a conservative could easily win.
North Carolina was a possible candidate back in 2010 for a 14th district however came up about 15,000 people shy in the U.S. census.
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